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Bo Nix

Bo Nix Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Bo Nix Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+365/-400).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +360 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +365.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
  • The Broncos O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
  • The Raiders safeties grade out as the 4th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Broncos are an enormous 8-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.
  • This year, the porous Raiders run defense has allowed a monstrous 1.33 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-largest rate in the NFL.

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