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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Falcons are a 5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.0 plays per game.
  • Bijan Robinson has accrued a staggering 7.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
  • Bijan Robinson grades out in the 94th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.25 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to be a more important option in his offense's run game near the end zone in this contest (64.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (45.2% in games he has played).
  • While Bijan Robinson has been responsible for 35.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of Atlanta's pass game near the goal line this week at 21.7%.
  • Bijan Robinson's 79.6% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a remarkable regression in his receiving prowess over last season's 87.3% mark.

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