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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-160/+158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The Falcons have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
  • Bijan Robinson has put up a massive 8.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among running backs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Bijan Robinson's 29.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 21.9.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the least pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 56.9% pass rate.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are projected by the projection model to call only 61.9 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
  • The predictive model expects Bijan Robinson to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game near the goal line in this week's contest (20.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (38.5% in games he has played).
  • Bijan Robinson's 78.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a substantial decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 87.4% rate.

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