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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-160/+132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

Bijan Robinson ranks in the 96th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an excellent 0.25 per game.

The rushing TD column reads "0" on Bijan Robinson's player page this year.

When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Washington's unit has been great since the start of last season, grading out as the best in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.0% red zone run rate.

The Falcons offense has played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

While Bijan Robinson has accounted for 46.7% of his team's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Atlanta's run game near the end zone in this week's game at 59.6%.

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