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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-180/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
  • With a remarkable 22.8% Red Zone Target% (99th percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson stands as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage near the goal line in football.
  • As it relates to air yards, Bijan Robinson ranks in the lofty 95th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a massive 5.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
  • Bijan Robinson's 32.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 4.5-point advantage, the Falcons are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.6% pass rate.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
  • Bijan Robinson's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 87.5% to 77.4%.
  • Bijan Robinson has run for 0.39 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football when it comes to RBs (82nd percentile).

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