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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-184/+101).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +142 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +101.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have 135.3 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
  • Bijan Robinson has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.4% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile among RBs.
  • Bijan Robinson has accrued a massive 6.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Bijan Robinson's 30.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Falcons to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • Bijan Robinson's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 87.4% to 79.6%.
  • With an excellent ratio of 0.38 touchdowns on the ground per game (83rd percentile), Bijan Robinson stands among the leading rushing touchdown-scorers in the NFL this year.
  • This year, the deficient Arizona Cardinals run defense has given up a colossal 1.07 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 10th-worst rate in football.

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