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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-116/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Falcons, who are heavy -7-point underdogs.
  • The leading projections forecast the Falcons as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.17 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (39.5 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in football in the red zone (51.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Bijan Robinson's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 87.3% to 81.1%.
  • Bijan Robinson has run for 0.38 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league when it comes to running backs (82nd percentile).
  • The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (77.5%) to running backs this year (77.5%).

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