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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-136/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -136.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 133.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • When it comes to air yards, Bijan Robinson ranks in the lofty 95th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a colossal 5.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • Bijan Robinson's 29.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 21.9.
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year.
  • Bijan Robinson ranks in the 88th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.17 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 52.1% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-most run-focused offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 49.9% red zone run rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect Bijan Robinson to be much less involved in his team's pass game near the end zone this week (23.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (28.1% in games he has played).
  • Bijan Robinson's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 87.4% to 82.1%.

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