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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-123/+113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +109 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 142.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
  • When talking about air yards, Bijan Robinson ranks in the towering 95th percentile among running backs this year, averaging an astounding 7.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • Bijan Robinson's 30.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (56.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • Our trusted projections expect Bijan Robinson to be a much smaller part of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (23.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (29.0% in games he has played).
  • Bijan Robinson's 81.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year's 87.4% mark.
  • With an exceptional rate of 0.36 rushing touchdowns per game (77th percentile), Bijan Robinson has been among the top rushing touchdown-scorers in football this year.

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