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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-134/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -134.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
  • In regards to air yards, Bijan Robinson grades out in the towering 95th percentile among running backs this year, averaging an astounding 7.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • Bijan Robinson's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Falcons grades out as the 9th-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 8th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 46.1% red zone run rate.
  • The leading projections forecast the Falcons to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to be a less important option in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (20.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (27.6% in games he has played).
  • Bijan Robinson's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 87.3% to 81.5%.
  • This year, the strong Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed a puny 75.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.

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