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Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-103/-118).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 67.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 63.5 @ -118.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Right now, the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in football (42.2% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Falcons.The Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.0 plays per game.Our trusted projections expect Bijan Robinson to garner 16.9 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among running backs.Bijan Robinson has received 59.4% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.Bijan Robinson's rushing efficiency (4.75 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (76th percentile among running backs).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Falcons are a 5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.Bijan Robinson's 63.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season shows a noteable decrease in his running proficiency over last season's 81.0 rate.This year, the tough Patriots run defense has surrendered a measly 74.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the best in the league.As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New England's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.
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