Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Bijan Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2025

Updated Sep 7, 2025 4:36 PM EST

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 74.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 76.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the most run-focused team in the league (43.1% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Atlanta Falcons.
The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Atlanta Falcons last year (a whopping 59.2 per game on average).
In this game, Bijan Robinson is anticipated by the projections to rank in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.2 rush attempts.
Bijan Robinson has garnered 65.3% of his offense's rushing play calls last year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Bijan Robinson has averaged 81.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the highest figures in football when it comes to running backs (96th percentile).

Favors Under

The model projects the Falcons to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 100.0 per game) vs. the Buccaneers defense last year.

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