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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-121/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

Our trusted projections expect Bijan Robinson to notch 5.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.

Bijan Robinson's 27.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 21.9.

Bijan Robinson grades out as one of the best running backs in the pass game this year, averaging an outstanding 3.5 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

The Commanders safeties rank as the worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The Falcons offense has played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

Bijan Robinson's 77.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies a noteworthy reduction in his receiving talent over last season's 87.4% mark.

The Commanders pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.6%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (78.6%).

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