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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-112/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a colossal 59.7 per game on average).

Bijan Robinson has run a route on 67.5% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.

In this game, Bijan Robinson is forecasted by the projections to rank in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.7 targets.

With a fantastic 3.7 adjusted catches per game (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Bijan Robinson ranks as one of the top pass-catching RBs in the league.

Since the start of last season, the weak Panthers pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 88.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 6th-highest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 4.5 points.

The model projects the Falcons as the 4th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see just 121.5 plays on offense run: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The Falcons have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier weather in this game.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

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