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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+106/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
  • The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to accumulate 7.2 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
  • Bijan Robinson's 20.6% Target Rate this year represents a material gain in his pass attack workload over last year's 14.7% figure.
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 4.5-point advantage, the Falcons are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.6% pass rate.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
  • Bijan Robinson's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 87.5% to 77.4%.

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