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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+118/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -121.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have 135.3 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
  • In this game, Bijan Robinson is predicted by the predictive model to finish in the 97th percentile among running backs with 6.3 targets.
  • Bijan Robinson's 30.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.
  • The Atlanta O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Falcons to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Bijan Robinson's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 87.4% to 79.6%.

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