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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
  • The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.25 seconds per play.
  • The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to accumulate 6.8 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • Bijan Robinson's 28.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 21.9.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the least pass-heavy offense in football (55.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Falcons.
  • Bijan Robinson's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 87.3% to 81.6%.
  • When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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