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Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-120/-108).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Falcons are a 5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.The Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.0 plays per game.The predictive model expects Bijan Robinson to accrue 6.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.Bijan Robinson has accrued a staggering 7.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).Bijan Robinson's 30.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in football (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.Bijan Robinson's 79.6% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a remarkable regression in his receiving prowess over last season's 87.3% mark.Bijan Robinson's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this season, compiling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.70 mark last season.As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's unit has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 9th-best in football.
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