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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • Our trusted projections expect Bijan Robinson to notch 5.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
  • Bijan Robinson's 27.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 21.9.
  • Bijan Robinson has totaled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (37.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).
  • Bijan Robinson's pass-game effectiveness has gotten better this season, compiling 8.20 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.34 rate last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The Falcons offense has played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.
  • Bijan Robinson's 77.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies a noteworthy reduction in his receiving talent over last season's 87.4% mark.
  • Bijan Robinson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year illustrates an impressive decline in his efficiency in space over last year's 8.7% mark.

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