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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have 135.3 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
  • In this game, Bijan Robinson is predicted by the predictive model to finish in the 97th percentile among running backs with 6.3 targets.
  • Bijan Robinson has accrued a massive 6.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Bijan Robinson's 30.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Falcons to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Bijan Robinson's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 87.4% to 79.6%.
  • Bijan Robinson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a material decline in his effectiveness in space over last year's 8.7% mark.
  • This year, the daunting Cardinals defense has given up a feeble 28.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 10th-fewest in football.

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