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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-122/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ +110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have 133.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • The model projects Bijan Robinson to earn 6.1 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • When it comes to air yards, Bijan Robinson ranks in the lofty 95th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a colossal 5.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • Bijan Robinson's 29.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 21.9.
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 52.1% of their downs: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Bijan Robinson's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 87.4% to 82.1%.
  • Bijan Robinson's skills in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this year, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 8.70 figure last year.
  • The New York Jets defense has given up the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 25.0) versus RBs this year.

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