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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-114/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 142.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
  • Our trusted projections expect Bijan Robinson to accrue 7.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • When talking about air yards, Bijan Robinson ranks in the towering 95th percentile among running backs this year, averaging an astounding 7.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • Bijan Robinson's 30.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (56.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • Bijan Robinson's 81.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year's 87.4% mark.
  • Bijan Robinson's skills in generating extra yardage have tailed off this year, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.70 rate last year.
  • The Saints defense has conceded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 21.0) to running backs this year.

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