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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

Baker Mayfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+600/-1200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Buccaneers being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.0% red zone pass rate.

The Buccaneers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 59.2 plays per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Baker Mayfield has been among the best touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 1.50 per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers offense to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

In this week's game, Baker Mayfield is predicted by the model to wind up with the 6th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.9.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Eagles, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.2 per game) since the start of last season.

While Baker Mayfield has earned 0.0% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Tampa Bay's running game near the goal line in this contest at 14.2%.

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