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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Baker Mayfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+760/-820).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -820.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Baker Mayfield has not tried to run the ball himself in the red zone at all this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
  • The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to run the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Panthers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.7 per game) this year.
  • Baker Mayfield's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 71.1% to 62.7%.
  • The Panthers defense has surrendered the 8th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.19 per game this year.

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