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Baker Mayfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+680/-1100).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -990 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1100.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Baker Mayfield is not much of a runner and has accounted for just 0.0% of his offense's carries in the red zone this year, placing him in the 2nd percentile when it comes to QBs.This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins defense has yielded a massive 75.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the league.This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 1.73 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Miami's unit has been very good this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 5.5 points.The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 8th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.In this game, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the projections to total the 6th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.7. Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Dolphins, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 31.5 per game) this year.
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