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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Baker Mayfield Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+650/-680).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -810 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -680.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (59.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.
  • The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Baker Mayfield is not much of a rusher and has accounted for just 0.0% of his offense's rush attempts in the red zone this year, placing him in the 2nd percentile among quarterbacks.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.62 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 4.5 points.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.
  • In this game, Baker Mayfield is predicted by the projection model to total the 10th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.2.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.9 per game) this year.

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