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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-196/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -196.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 134.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • Baker Mayfield has been among the leading touchdown throwers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 1.62 per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
  • The Saints defense has allowed the 6th-most passing TDs in the NFL: 2.00 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
  • Baker Mayfield's 64.4% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates an impressive reduction in his passing precision over last season's 71.1% figure.

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