Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets · Week 3, 2025

Updated Sep 21, 2025 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (58.4% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a mere 55.4 per game on average).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
With a remarkable rate of 2.42 per game (98th percentile), Baker Mayfield rates among the top touchdown passers in football since the start of last season.
As it relates to linebackers pass-rushing, New York's collection of LBs has been lousy since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
In this contest, Baker Mayfield is predicted by the model to total the 7th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 30.7.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

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