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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins defense has yielded a massive 75.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the league.
  • This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 1.73 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
  • The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 8th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • In this game, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the projections to total the 6th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 31.7.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Dolphins, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 31.5 per game) this year.

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