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Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+125).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -156.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At the present time, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (59.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.As it relates to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.The Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in football: 1.62 per game this year.The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 4.5 points.Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.At the present time, the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.In this game, Baker Mayfield is predicted by the projection model to total the 10th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.2. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.9 per game) this year.
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