Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-150).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -6.5-point underdogs.

Right now, the 7th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (59.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.

Baker Mayfield has attempted 31.7 throws per game this year, grading out in the 76th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Bills linebackers project as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are forecasted by the model to call only 61.9 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.

The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.

Baker Mayfield's 64.2% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a remarkable regression in his throwing accuracy over last year's 71.1% mark.

This year, the tough Buffalo Bills defense has yielded a meager 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.

More Baker Mayfield Player Props

Baker Mayfield TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11