My Account Log Out

reorder

Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a massive 58.9 per game on average).

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

In throwing a monstrous 34.0 pass attempts per game last year, Baker Mayfield stands among the top QBs in the NFL (78th percentile) by this measure.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense last year: 9th-most in the NFL.

The Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Atlanta Falcons safeties project as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league last year in covering pass-catchers.

More Baker Mayfield Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™