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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 63.3% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week.

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.7% red zone pass rate.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

As it relates to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year.

This year, the daunting Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a measly 0.75 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.

When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the league.

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