Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 3, 2024 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 63.3% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.7% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

As it relates to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
This year, the daunting Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a measly 0.75 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the league.

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