Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -6-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buccaneers to pass on 64.0% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
Right now, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 129.8 total plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a lowly 56.4 per game on average).
Since the start of last season, the daunting Lions defense has yielded a meager 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-best rate in football.
The Lions linebackers grade out as the 7th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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