Baker Mayfield TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 23, 2024 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-196/+149).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -196.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 132.3 total plays run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
The Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Baker Mayfield's 70.5% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a noteable progression in his throwing precision over last year's 63.6% mark.
Baker Mayfield has been among the best touchdown passers in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 2.29 per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

With a 4-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.

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