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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns

Baker Mayfield TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -185.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.0% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 25.65 seconds per play.

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Cleveland Browns defense has conceded the 9th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.71 per game since the start of last season.

The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 33.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.

The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Baker Mayfield has been among the least accurate quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season with a 61.9% Completion%, grading out in the 23rd percentile.

The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

The Carolina Panthers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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