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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers offense to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard now calling the plays.

The Buccaneers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 59.2 plays per game.

Baker Mayfield has rushed for many more yards per game (25.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).

Baker Mayfield's 10.17 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year reflects a noteable progression in his running talent over last year's 6.54 mark.

With an exceptional total of 3.86 yards-after-contact (94th percentile), Baker Mayfield places as one of the top running QBs in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Buccaneers being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Since the start of last season, the weak Eagles run defense has surrendered a massive 4.38 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 25th-biggest rate in the league.

As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Philadelphia's group of DTs has been tremendous since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the league.

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