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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run on 45.0% of their chances: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.

The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a mere 55.4 per game on average).

Baker Mayfield's 8.63 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season reflects a material progression in his running prowess over last season's 6.54 rate.

Baker Mayfield profiles as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a terrific 3.60 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 89th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The New York Jets defense has had the 10th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up just 4.45 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

The New York defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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