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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-109/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Baker Mayfield's ground efficiency has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 7.74 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 6.54 figure last year.
  • The Bills defense has produced the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.38 adjusted yards-per-carry.
  • When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football. in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • At the present time, the 10th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (37.8% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are forecasted by the model to call only 61.9 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Baker Mayfield has run for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (14.0) this season than he did last season (20.0).

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