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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a massive 58.9 per game on average).

With an excellent rate of 2.59 yards-after-contact (90th percentile), Baker Mayfield rates among the leading rushing QBs in the league last year.

The Atlanta Falcons defense has had the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games last year, yielding 4.81 adjusted yards-per-carry.

As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's group of LBs has been easily exploitable last year, grading out as the 5th-worst in the league. in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

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