Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 4, 2024 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Baker Mayfield's 16.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year indicates a significant improvement in his rushing skills over last year's 10.0 mark.
Baker Mayfield's ground effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 6.36 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.16 figure last season.
Baker Mayfield rates as one of the leading QBs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 3.84 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 94th percentile.
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (159 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buccaneers to run on 36.7% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's collection of DTs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.

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