Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 30, 2024 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Baker Mayfield's ground effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, notching 7.27 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.16 rate last season.
With a terrific record of 5.14 yards-after-contact (100th percentile), Baker Mayfield places as one of the leading rushing QBs in the league this year.
As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Philadelphia's unit has been very bad since the start of last season, projecting as the worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buccaneers to run on 40.7% of their downs: the 10th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to run the 10th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a measly 55.6 per game on average).

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