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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-133/+103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a running game script.

Baker Mayfield's 7.37 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season signifies a remarkable progression in his running skills over last season's 4.16 rate.

With a terrific rate of 5.14 yards-after-contact (94th percentile), Baker Mayfield ranks as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

The Broncos defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, yielding 5.06 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The Broncos defensive ends grade out as the worst group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 6th-least run-centric team in football (37.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to call the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).

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