Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects Baker Mayfield to total 4.3 rush attempts this week, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Baker Mayfield has run for many more yards per game (16.0) this season than he did last season (7.0).
Baker Mayfield's ground efficiency has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 4.33 adjusted yards-per-carry vs just 3.35 rate last year.

Favors Under

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.2 per game on average).
When it comes to blocking for ball-carriers (and the significance it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 5th-worst in football last year.
The Detroit Lions defense has produced the best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing just 3.04 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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