Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (15.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.2% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
The Carolina Panthers have gone for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 8th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.

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