Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 4, 2024 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 234.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 242.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 234.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 63.3% of their opportunities: the highest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this contest, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the projections to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.3.

Favors Under

As it relates to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
The Falcons pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, yielding 6.63 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-fewest in the league.
The Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the league.

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