Baker Mayfield Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 30, 2024 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 231.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 231.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buccaneers to pass on 59.3% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (37.0 per game) since the start of last season.
Baker Mayfield's passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 63.6% to 73.3%.
Baker Mayfield checks in as one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 7.76 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 87th percentile.
Since the start of last season, the porous Eagles defense has allowed a whopping 248.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 4th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to run the 10th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a measly 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the league against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (68.7% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's group of safeties has been phenomenal since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in football.

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