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Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 205.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 200.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 205.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 30.3 passes this week, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.

The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Baker Mayfield's throwing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 61.9% to 51.1%.

Baker Mayfield's passing effectiveness has worsened this year, compiling a mere 5.69 yards-per-target vs a 7.12 rate last year.

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