Baker Mayfield Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the NFL.
In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.
Baker Mayfield's 68.9% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a a significant progression in his throwing accuracy over last season's 63.1% figure.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Buccaneers as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.2 per game on average).
This week, Baker Mayfield is projected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.7.

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