Baker Mayfield Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Baker Mayfield

NFL · Player Props

Baker Mayfield

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Baker Mayfield Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-137/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Baker Mayfield has attempted just 15.4 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 5th percentile among quarterbacks.
Since the start of last season, the fierce New Orleans Saints defense has given up a paltry 63.6% Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the smallest rate in the NFL.
The Saints defensive tackles project as the 6th-best DT corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

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